Is Your Business Growing—or Losing Momentum? Start With These Two Questions:

• How many unique customers have made a purchase in the past 12 months?
• Did you end last month with more, fewer, or the same number of buyers as you started with?

The answers to these two simple questions surrounding your 12-month buyer count offer a surprisingly clear snapshot of your business’s trajectory—whether it’s growing, holding steady, or starting to slip.

Make Measurement a Habit

Customer flow reporting tracks how buyers move between recency segments—where recency refers to the time since their last purchase. This movement reveals who’s new, who’s been retained, and who’s fallen off the radar in your 12-month buyer file.

A few key patterns to track:

• Additions to the 12-month buyer count come from two places: first-time customer acquisition and reactivation of lapsed buyers (those who haven’t purchased in over a year). Both are essential to offset natural attrition.
• Lost buyers—those who age beyond 12 months without purchasing—move into the 13+ month group. Reducing how many customers fall into this category eases pressure on acquisition and reactivation, both of which are costly.
• Repeat buyers who make another purchase within the 12-month window reset their attrition clock to zero. While they don’t replace aged-out customers directly, they help lower the number aging out each month, especially if they’re reactivated late in the cycle.

A simple cross-tab comparing last month’s recency to this month’s can reveal the dynamics of your customer base. Who’s accelerating or decelerating their purchase behavior? Who’s slipping away? Who just came back? Who needs a new onboarding or re-engagement journey?

The bottom line: If you’re not adding more buyers than you’re losing, your 12-month active file will shrink.

Growing your business requires finding the perfect balance of acquisition and re-activation to offset attrition. Regular measurement and quick response are key.

Rethinking What “At Risk” Really Means

The definition of an active customer has narrowed over time. Years ago, anyone who had shopped within the last 3–5 years was still considered “active.” That window has steadily closed—from 5 years to 36 months, then 24, now often just 13 months.

But the truth is: most second purchases happen early. Based on 1x-to-2x conversion rate analysis, I’ve seen that 30% to 50% of second purchases occur within the first four months after the initial transaction. After six months, the likelihood of converting drops significantly—and the “win-back” phase needs to begin.

Preempt Attrition with a Well-Timed Strike

Every business is different but understanding your average first-year repurchase window is key. If, for example, most of your second purchases happen within six months, you shouldn’t wait until month 12 to try to win customers back.

Instead, start treating them as at risk by month 7. Build a re-engagement campaign that preempts inactivity before it becomes full-on attrition. The fewer customers that age out of your 12-month buyer file, the less pressure you’ll feel to chase new ones to replace them.

Growing your business requires finding the perfect balance of acquisition and re-activation to offset attrition. Regular measurement and quick response are key. Monitor customer flow monthly and turn your “one-and-done” buyers into repeat customers before the clock runs out.

Need Help Turning Insights into Action?

At CCC, we understand how critical it is to identify trends in your data early—so you can act quickly and confidently. Our goal is to help you stay ahead of the curve and ensure your 12-month buyer count is always moving in the right direction. If you’d like to learn more, let’s talk!